Natural hazards increase propensity of mortgage default

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Competing Risks Models using Mortgage Duration Data under the Proportional Hazards Assumption Authors Mark Y. An and Zhikun Qi Abstract This paper demonstrates two important results related to the estimation of a competing risks model under the proportional hazards assumption with grouped duration data, a model that has

"Through the recent crisis in the housing and mortgage finance markets, the industry has learned a lot about how to better manage and predict risk," the economists stated. "The cost of not doing so is far too high." "Natural hazard risk is another new frontier of risk management requiring ongoing attention," the economists concluded.

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Miami has the greatest exposure to mortgage default risk due to natural hazards. In the report, CoreLogic officials assert that in the past, there really has been no way to systematically measure risk from natural disasters to lenders and investors.

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Natural Hazards and Climate Change Decomposing Mortgage Portfolio Risk: Default, Prepayment, and Severity – Nov 2010 6 Default/Prepayment models: Cox regression Default/Prepayment: Cox Proportional Hazard Model is a natural choice. – Both default and prepayment are discrete events. – Both are affected by many factors (macro economic factors, loan characteristics and etc.).

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The likelihood of default due to natural disaster on a loan that bears a high risk for natural disaster is nearly double that of a similar loan in a low-risk area, according to CoreLogic. "By comparison, the propensity to default because of lack of equity, as measured by origination LTV, of a high LTV loan is a little over double that of the propensity for a low risk loan," the economists stated.

Consumer and commercial loan portfolios should be included in such assessments. The credit risks associated with natural disasters largely come in two major forms: (1) effects on default from damage or destruction of property that triggers a default; or (2) impacts from lost income that reduce repayment capacity.

FHFA resolves 6 of 18 RMBS suits against big banks 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage finishes year near record lows 30-year fixed rate near RECORD lows. o Do you plan to stay in your home for many years? o Do you prefer a consistent mortgage payment for budget planning? o Does your peace of mind depend on a payment that never changes? If you answered "yes" to any of these questions, a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage might be right for you!

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